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Hausberg et al. and Rabbia et al. [32,33] confirm the usefulness of AI and AT but report that a simple pattern recognition of the Doppler waveform from the segmental arteries (persistence of the ESP) may be more valuable than calculating AI and AT with 95% sensitivity, 97% specificity, and 96% accuracy for stenosis greater than 60%. On the other hand, in a comprehensive review, the authors [19,34] found for AT and AI a sensitivity of 80% and 74% and a specificity of 88% and 85%, respectively. Many factors influence systolic acceleration and may make the test non-specific. Extrarenal factors such as aortic and mitral valvular diseases, left ventricular dysfunction or even cardiovascular medication might affect systolic acceleration. Numerous factors, such as age, hypertension and diabetes affect vessel compliance. Such variables may explain why some authors have not been able to reproduce these results [30,35]. Therefore, these criteria are used only when obvious on spectral traces, when quantifying the stenosis as severe (> 75%), or when identifying a downstream pattern of a stenosis on a segmental or an accessory artery that has been missed [28,36]. Most accrediting organizations recommend the use of a combination of intra- and extrarenal parameters, as it results in an overall sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 92% [11,37].
Our experience indicates that any drawdown bigger than 20-25% makes most traders shaky and uncertain. This results in abandonment, fiddling, or curve fitting. Thus, 25% can serve as a heuristic for max drawdown.
First, we need to calculate the risk-adjusted return. This is the geometric return (annual) return in percent divided by the exposure in %. Exposure is the same as time spent in the market. If your strategy has 50 trades per year and makes 10% annual returns, this is more impressive than a strategy that returns the same but is invested 100% of the time. Time spent in the markets matter!
The reasoning is straightforward: we are only at risk if we lose money, we are not interested in risk on the upside. Most trading platforms or technical software has included the Ulcer index in their backtesting reports.
What do we mean by this? Many traders try to improve their trading strategies so that they end up curve fitting or fiddling with it. They dream of a strategy that has the perfect equity curve with hardly any drawdowns at all.
One very important aspect in that regard is correlation in trading. To minimize correlation between the strategies you need to trade different asset classes, different time frames, and different market directions (long and short). Short selling is difficult, for example, but it can serve as an incredibly useful tool as risk mitigation in a portfolio, as explained by Mark Spitznagel.
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